Sanja Dudukovic
Professor, International Management
Department Co-Chair, International Management
Ph.D. University of Belgrade, Yugoslavia
M.S. University of Belgrade, Yugoslavia
B.S. University of Belgrade, Yugoslavia
Office: Lowerre Academic Center, North Campus 4
Phone: +41 91 986 36 34
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Profile:
Since 1991, Dr. Dudukovic has taught a number of courses in Business Analytics, including Data Mining (Business Intelligence), Management Science, Management Information Systems, Quantitative Methods & Dynamic Forecasting, Statistics and Computing. Her degrees include a B.S. in Technology, an M.S. in Economics and a Ph.D. in Statistics. Her long-term theoretical research interests include Non-Gaussian Time Series Modeling, Entropy Maximization and Information Theory. Since 1997, her empirical research interests cover the fields of Financial Modeling, Credit Spread Modeling, Stock Market GARCH and RV Volatility Forecasting , Machine Learning and HOC ARMA modeling. She has published numerous publications on Non-Gaussian Time Series Analysis and Volatility Forecasting and has considerable private-sector experience in Management Information System Development. She has a particular interest in Educational Data Mining and undergraduate research. She is engaged in discovering the methods needed to trigger student research interest by including notions of creativity in philosophy, psychology and logic. She established and directed Franklin's Center for Quantitative Research (CQR) with the aim of achieving results worth presenting at professional international conferences. She is a member of the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics, the American Statistical Association and the IEEC Computer Society.
2019-2020 Courses:
| BUS 306 | Quantitative Methods and Dynamic Forecasting | FALL 2019 |
| In the first part of this course students learn concepts in inferential statistics, its main principles and algorithms. They learn how to apply sampling distributions in the case of business random variables, how to state and test business hypotheses about population mean or proportion differences, how to calculate ANOVA table components, and how to deploy estimation methods to provide information needed to solve real business problems. In the second part of the course, students learn advanced model building methods, algorithms needed to make and test dynamic multiple regression models and time series (ARMA) models. In addition to teaching and learning methods based on the textbook, problem-based learning (PBL) and interactive engagement (IE) are used. Many internet data bases, EXCEL add-ins and EViews are used to enhance IE based learning. Selected SPSS or STATA examples are also provided. |
| BUS 340 | Management Science | FALL 2019 |
| In the first part of this computer-based course, students learn linear programming algorithms and how to apply them for resource allocation in production, investment selection, media selection, transportation planning, job assignments, financial planning, make or buy decision making and overtime planning contexts. In the second part of the course, students learn how to choose the best decision using expected monetary value (EMV), how to make optimum decision strategies under uncertainty by making decision trees, how to evaluate marketing research information, and how to apply project management (PERT) basic steps. Ultimately students are asked to conduct a month-long research and development project to define a real organizational decision strategy. |
| MAT 201 | Introduction to Statistics | FALL 2019 |
| This computer-based course presents the basic concepts in statistics: random variables, random sampling, frequency distributions, central tendency measures, variance and standard deviation, kurtosis and skewness, probability rules, Bayes theorem and posterior probability. Important statistical methods like contingency analysis, ANOVA, and correlation analysis are introduced and their algorithms are explained. The most important probability distributions are introduced: Binomial, Poisson, and Normal distribution, as well as the Chebyshev theorem for non-symmetrical distributions. Inferential statistics, sampling distributions and confidence intervals are briefly covered in order to introduce statistical model building and single linear regression and trend analysis. Students learn how to promote the scientific method, how to identify questions, collect evidence, discover and apply tools to interpret the data, and communicate results. EXCEL is used to enhance algorithmic learning. Selected SPSS or STATA examples are also provided. |
| BUS 306 | Quantitative Methods and Dynamic Forecasting | SPRING 2020 |
| In the first part of this course students learn concepts in inferential statistics, its main principles and algorithms. They learn how to apply sampling distributions in the case of business random variables, how to state and test business hypotheses about population mean or proportion differences, how to calculate ANOVA table components, and how to deploy estimation methods to provide information needed to solve real business problems. In the second part of the course, students learn advanced model building methods, algorithms needed to make and test dynamic multiple regression models and time series (ARMA) models. In addition to teaching and learning methods based on the textbook, problem-based learning (PBL) and interactive engagement (IE) are used. Many internet data bases, EXCEL add-ins and EViews are used to enhance IE based learning. Selected SPSS or STATA examples are also provided. |
| BUS 397 | Data Mining (Business Intelligence) | SPRING 2020 |
| This course introduces the-cutting edge computing methods for the analysis of business and market big data which help in inferring and validating patterns, structures and relationships in data, as a tool to support decisions at all levels of management. Students learn key descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive data mining methods with both supervised and non-supervised learning algorithms, which produce information for non-structured and semi structured decision making. While the course introduces a systems approach to business data processing starting with DBMS systems, emphasis will be given to empirical applications using modern software tools such as XL-Miner and IBM SPSS modeler. More specifically, students will become familiar with and demonstrate proficiency in applications such as cluster analysis, logistic regression, classification to group customers into classes and a class-based pricing procedure, market segmentation and targeting, neural networks, decision trees and nonlinear optimization for asset allocation . Engagement based learning is provided by using real world cases as well as computer based hands-on real data analysis. Working in teams, students will demonstrate knowledge in applying data mining analytical techniques on a real world business problem to discover new information by preparing and presenting a self-designed semester project.
In addition to specific prerequisites, BUS 326 is also recommended. |
| MAT 201 | Introduction to Statistics | SPRING 2020 |
| This computer-based course presents the basic concepts in statistics: random variables, random sampling, frequency distributions, central tendency measures, variance and standard deviation, kurtosis and skewness, probability rules, Bayes theorem and posterior probability. Important statistical methods like contingency analysis, ANOVA, and correlation analysis are introduced and their algorithms are explained. The most important probability distributions are introduced: Binomial, Poisson, and Normal distribution, as well as the Chebyshev theorem for non-symmetrical distributions. Inferential statistics, sampling distributions and confidence intervals are briefly covered in order to introduce statistical model building and single linear regression and trend analysis. Students learn how to promote the scientific method, how to identify questions, collect evidence, discover and apply tools to interpret the data, and communicate results. EXCEL is used to enhance algorithmic learning. Selected SPSS or STATA examples are also provided. |
| TVL 299 | Society in Transition (Belgrade, Zagreb, Istria) | SPRING 2020 |
| The capitals of Serbia and Croatia as well as Istria are an incredibly rich mosaic of different cultures, influences and styles. After taking this 1-credit multidisciplinary travel course, students will be able to understand and critically analyze different economic, political, cultural and social aspects of transition changes in Serbia, Croatia and Istria, in particular after dissolution of the federal state. Students will also come to understand the concept of self-management, the current economic growth models in Serbia and Croatia, transition from socialism to capitalism , rapid privatizations, Intellectual movements in Serbia and Croatia, Social Classes in transition, Press Freedom, Media Freedom in Serbia, Modern Art in Serbia and Croatia. Students will be exposed to basic elements of cultural and national identity, national food, ballet or opera, concerts and folk dancing traditions in Belgrade and in Zagreb. Academic lectures in Belgrade, Zagreb and Istria are carefully planned to substantiate eight different research topics students would be involved in. Meetings with government representatives and private business managers, interviews with ordinary people are also planned. The itinerary will center on Zagreb, Belgrade and small towns in Istria : Pula, Rijeka, Opatija and Rovinj. Tour to islands around Rovinj by boat will be also organized. Finally students will write a research paper about one research topic of their choice.
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| MAT 201 | Introduction to Statistics | SUMMER 2020 |
| This computer-based course presents the basic concepts in statistics: random variables, random sampling, frequency distributions, central tendency measures, variance and standard deviation, kurtosis and skewness, probability rules, Bayes theorem and posterior probability. Important statistical methods like contingency analysis, ANOVA, and correlation analysis are introduced and their algorithms are explained. The most important probability distributions are introduced: Binomial, Poisson, and Normal distribution, as well as the Chebyshev theorem for non-symmetrical distributions. Inferential statistics, sampling distributions and confidence intervals are briefly covered in order to introduce statistical model building and single linear regression and trend analysis. Students learn how to promote the scientific method, how to identify questions, collect evidence, discover and apply tools to interpret the data, and communicate results. EXCEL is used to enhance algorithmic learning. Selected SPSS or STATA examples are also provided. |
Journal Publications:
Book Chapter:
“Evaluating Realized Volatility Models with Higher Order Cumulants: HAR-RV Versus ARIMA-RV”. In H.Bilgin, M., Danis at al (eds). Eurasian Business Perspectives. Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics, Springer Nature-Switzerland. 2019. pp 315-336. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-11833-4
JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS:
"Testing GARCH and RV Exchange Rate Volatility Models using Hinich Tricorrelations," Oxford Journal on Business and Economics, Vol. 9, No. 2 (2014) ,136-151.
"A Cumulant-based stock market volatility modeling – Evidence from the international stock markets," Journal of Finance and Accountancy, Vol. 17, October 2014, 80-97.
http://www.aabri.com/manuscripts/141970.pdf
"Credit Spread Modeling: Macro-financial versus HOC approach," Economic Analysis, 2014, Vol. 47, No. 3-4, 53-68
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibg/eajour/v47y2014i3-4p53-68.html
"Exchange Rate Volatility Forecasting Using Higher Order Cumulant Function." 2013. China-USA Business Review, ISSN 1537-1514, Vol. 12, No. 6, 533-542, ISSN 1573-1514
“A New Approach to Causality Testing”, Journal of Economic Analysis Vol. 44, no. 2011/1-2. EBSCO journal.
http://www.ien.bg.ac.rs/index.php/en/journal-economic-analysis
"Stock Market Volatility Forecasting Using Higher Order Statistics - Evidence from the Belgrade Stock Exchange." Statistical Review, Vol. LVIII, No 3-4, pp.19-30, 2009, ISSN 0039-0534.
http://scindeks.nb.rs/issue.aspx?issue=7757&lang=en
“Suppression of the regular Interference in the presence of Band-Limited White Noise, in: Torres: Signal Processing, Theories and Application.” IEEE Press, Elsevier Pub. Comp, Vol. 1, 593-597.
Working Papers:
” Inverse Time Series approach to Non Gaussian GARCH-ARMA FX Volatility Modeling “, Paper accepted for presentation at the 28th EBES Conference, London May 28-31, 2019.
"Micro and Macro Determinants of Stock Prices and their Volatility - The Case of International Oil Companies", Presented at 25th EBES Conference and published in the Proceedings, Berlin May 23-25, 2018.
“Does Multiplicative Seasonal Volatility Model Outperform Cascade Volatility Model? Evidence from Forex Market”. 22 EBES conference in May, Italy at the University “LA Sapienza”, 2017
"Testing GARCH and RV Exchange Rate Volatility Models using Hinich Tricorrelations-The case of Exchange Rate Volatility Forecasting," Proceedings of the CBEC conference, Cambridge 204, July 1-3, 2014.
"Entropy Loss in Non Gaussian High Frequency Measurement Systems," the 2014 International Conference on Systems and Informatics (ICSAI 2014) ,15-17 November 2014, Shanghai, China .
"Capturing stylized facts of Exchange Rate Volatility Using Higher Order Cumulant Function", Proceedings of the Cambridge Business & Economics Conference (CBEC), July 1-3. Cambridge, UK 2013.
http://www.gcbe.us/2013_CBEC/data/Sanja%20Dudukovic.pdf
“Exchange Rate Volatility Forecasting using Higher Order Cumulants and HF”, Proceedings of the Cambridge Business & Economics Conference (CBEC), June 27-29. Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK, 2012.
http://gcbe.us/2012_CBEC/data/Sanja%20Dudukovic.pdf
"Stock Market Volatility Forecasting - Evidence from the International Stock Markets.", Proceedings of the Cambridge Business & Economics Conference, Cambridge , UK, June 27-30, 2011.
http://www.gcbe.us/2011_CBEC/data/Sanja%20Dudukovic.pdf
”Answering the Skeptics: No, GARCH Exchange Rate Volatility Models Do Not Provide Accurate Forecasts”, Proceedings of the fourth EBES 2011 Conference (Eurasia Business and Economics Society) - Istanbul, June 1-3, 2011, Turkey.
"Spectral Analysis of GDP Shocks in US and BRIC Countries." Proceedings of the 4th Oxford Business and Economics Conference, Oxford, UK, June 28-30, 2010.
http://www.gcbe.us/2010_OBEC/data/Sanja%20Dudukovic.pdf
"Causality Testing Using Higher Order Cumulants." Proceedings of the 3rd Oxford Business and Economics Conference, Oxford, UK, June 23-26, 2009.
http://www.gcbe.us/2009_OBEC/data/Sanya%20Dudukovic.pdf
"Credit Spread Modeling Using Higher Order Cumulants." Proceedings of the Oxford Business and Economics Conference. ISBN: 978-0-9742114-7-3.
http://www.gcbe.us/2008_OBEC/data/Sanya%20Dudukovic%20.pdf
"Harmonic Analysis of the Real Business Cycles." Proceedings of the 2nd Oxford Conference on Business and Economics, Oxford, UK, June 24-27, 2007.
http://www.gcbe.us/2007_OBEC/data/Sanya%20Dudukovic.doc
"Causality between Interest Rate, Budget Deficit and Debt." Presented at the 6th International Conference on Business and Economics, Harvard University, USA, October 15-17, 2006.
"Forecasting Credit Spread Using Macro-Financial Variables." Proceedings of the 5th Global Conference on Business and Economics, Cambridge, UK, July 6-8, 2006. ISBN: 0-9742114-3-7.
“Micro-financial Determinants of Corporate Credit Spread," accepted for presentation at 5th Global Conference on Business & Economics Cambridge, UK, July 6-8, 2006.
“Dynamic Time Series Approach to Credit Spread Modeling," Proceedings of the Fourth Global Conference on Business & Economics, Jun, 26-28, 2005,Oxford, ISBN: 0-9742114-3-5.
“Feedback Between US Composite Index and Credit Spread,” Proceedings of 3rd International Finance Conference, IFC, 3-5 March 2005, Hammamet, Tunisia.
“Feedback between US Composite Index and Credit Spread.” Full paper accepted for the presentation on 3rd International Finance, Tunis, March 2005.
“Interest Rate Spread and GDP Growth –GARCH based Causality Test," Preoceedings of Global Conference on Business and Economics, July 7-9, 2004
"Extraction of the Band-Limited White Noise in the Presence of Colored Non Gaussian Noise," 3rd WSEAS International Conference on System Theory And Scientific Computation, poster session, Rhodos, Greece, July 28-30, 2003.
Awards and Honors:
2006: Franklin Faculty Excellence Award: Teaching
2011: Franklin Faculty Excellence Award: Teaching
2012: Franklin Faculty Excellence Award: Teaching
