An initial evaluation of FRISKOP has produced very positive results: it has been shown that the forecasts of the prediction market, which forms the core of the index, are very well calibrated. A related scientific paper has been presented at the Energizing Breakfast Seminar at Franklin University Switzerland, the CCEW SYMPOSIUM 2023 at Bundeswehr University Munich, and the Empirical Methods Workshop of the Annual Congress of the Swiss Political Science Association 2024 and is currently under review.

METHODOLOGY

FRISKOP bases its selection of events and the probability attached to it from A Prediction Market with Integrated Algorithms (PREMIA). Prediction markets are virtual stock markets, which use the information contained in market values to make forecasts. The potential effect of the global economy is measured with an original expert survey. Experts engage in rating of paired comparisons of the political events on their impact on the global economy if they happen. The information on the probability of the events and their potential impact are then combined by a formal rule. The methodological report including the list of experts can be found here.