In the Energizing Breakfast Club (EBC) of Wednesday November 2, The Franklin Political Risk and Opportunity Index (FRISKOP) was presented. FRISKOP is an initiative by Oliver Strijbis, Bernd Bucher, and Juliette Schwak, Professors of Political Science at FUS. It is the first political risk index that combines quantitative measures of the probability of geopolitical events and an assessment of their potential economic impacts.
The aim of FRISKOP is to make the FUS more visible both among academics and practitioners by providing frequently updated and accurate political risk assessments. According to Strijbis, political risks can be understood as the combination of the likelihood of a political event happening and its potential impact on the economy. Hence, it describes the expected harm or benefit from a political event in the future. This information is crucial for political risk analysist in varying fields spanning from NGOs and the media to the finance and insurance industry. Consequently, FRISKOP will be useful for a large international audience.
FRISKOP is based on innovative methodology including prediction market forecasts. Prediction markets are virtual stock markets on which “traders” bet on the likelihood of future political events. The data used for FRISKOP stem from PREMIA – a prediction market conducted at the University of Zurich. In order to estimate the potential economic impact of these political events, Strijbis, Bucher, and Schwak additionally conduct an expert survey among scholars and practitioners in IR and political economy.